Fighting For A Spot. Habs Training Camp

The Montreal Canadiens have played 5 preseason games, and so far, two prospects have really stood out and are challenging for a spot on the big club.

Michael Bournival: Michael is the only forward who is a real threat to steal a job from a veteran this season. So far in the preseason, Bournival has been dominant and chipping in offensively, while showing a lot of tenacity on the forecheck as well as strong, heady play in his own zone. In most cases, defensive play holds back young promising forward prospects, but in Michael’s case, it is one of his strengths and could very well be the deciding factor on whether or not he makes the team. At this point in time, the Habs’ top 9 is pretty much set with David Desharnais, Max Pacioretty, Daniel Briere, Alexander Galchenyuk, Tomas Plekanec, Lars Eller, Brendan Gallagher, Rene Bourque and Brian Gionta . Unless a trade occurs, there really is no room up on those lines. This leaves only the 4^th line as a potential spot for Bournival to grab, which is why his abilities in his own zone are particularly crucial to his hopes of making the team. In his last preseason game, Michael was used in such a role, lining up with the likes of Travis Moen and Ryan White, all while getting some time on the penalty kill. This is evidently the management’s attempt to test him in the role he would be required to fill should he make the roster this year. Personally, I would not be surprised to see him sent back to Hamilton, despite his great play in the preseason. The reasoning is that, frankly, he has more potential than simply being a fourth liner.  Getting top line minutes in the AHL might be more beneficial for developing his offensive skills, as well as for giving him more time to develop and round out his game as a whole. There is no need to rush a prospect and all signs point to Bergevin wanting to be as patient as possible in regards to bringing in prospects to the NHL.

Jarred Tinordi: If any prospect is going to make the roster on the backend, it will be Jarred Tinordi. Last season, Jarred made his NHL debut and was quite successful at first, but his play dipped towards the end of the season. In the pre-season so far, Tinordi has been very impressive to say the least. He has easily been one of the better defensemen on the team, his play vastly surpassing that of some veterans. Adding to this, as a big physical defensive defenseman, Jarred brings a style of play that is sorely lacking on the roster.  The signing of Douglas Murray, as well as the presence of depth defensemen such as Francis Bouillon and Davis Drewisky, allow Montreal the ability to not have to rush Jarred in. But with his play this pre-season, all indications show that he is ready to make the leap to the NHL and that the Canadiens will give it to him, based on the amount of games they have given him this pre-season. The biggest question isn’t whether or not Tinordi should make the big club, but rather what will Marc Bergevin do to make room for him? The injury to Drewisky is opportunistic, since it opens up a roster spot, number wise, but what about when Davis returns? More importantly, what will happen when Emelin returns from injury? These are questions that Marc Bergevin will have to answer, but one thing is for sure, this is a good problem to have.

 

-Icecoldbeard

Carolina Hurricanes Training Camp: 10 Thoughts

1| The yearly outburst of hope that any of Zac Dalpe, Zach Boychuk, or Drayson Bowman would turn out to be more than fringe NHLers has yet again come to a screeching halt. Boychuk cleared waivers and promptly return a AHL. Despite Alexander Semin, Tuomo Ruutu and Elias Lindholm being injured, Dalpe remains on the fifth line during practice while Bowman is skating the fourth. Good thing the Hurricanes were active in the offseason and picked up some proven top-nine NHLers to mitigate the obvious coming failure of these three. Oh, wait, they signed Nathan Gerbe and invited Radek Dvorak to camp. Sigh.

2| Speaking of which, how bad do the one-way contracts to Jeremy Welsh ($1M), Kevin Westgarth (725k), and Justin Peters (525k) look now? With a mere three injuries up front, the Hurricanes’ forward group is an absolutely disgusting trainwreck. The depth of the team will surely be tested over the course of the season and the team has chosen to spend money that should go towards quality NHL depth – such as, say, Mason Raymond (1M) or one of the other useful players who remain unsigned – on an AHL goalie, an AHL third liner and a goon who fights other goons in pointless staged fights. When someone is hurt, it’s going to be a talentless facepuncher or a forward who can barely score a point once every four preseason games and provides little defensive value stepping into the lineup, while a barely capable fourth liner steps up into the top nine.

3| On the subject of fighting, Tim Gleason felt the need to stick up for Eric Staal after a clean hit by Jarred Tinordi and ended up injuring himself in the process. Tinordi did not care about having to answer the bell and went around laying clean, devastating hits the rest of the night. The only thing that resulted from this “toughness” being shown is that Gleason hasn’t returned to practice four days later.

4| …Many fans loved it, though, because any hit on a ‘Cane is deemed a “cheapshot” and the supposed way to stop such behavior is to drop the gloves. This comes up repeatedly in discussions on the alleged need to protect Jeff Skinner, despite the fact that the two players who concussed him (Mark Fraser and Andy Sutton) have combined for 127 career fights. We are supposedly to believe that Fraser, who fought seventeen times last season alone, is not going to hit a player staring at the puck a few feet away from Fraser’s goalie because … he will have to fight someone? (note: Kevin Westgarth fighting ealier in the game didn’t prevent the hit.) There’s a simple solution to this problem: as Skinner himself said, “I have to learn to keep my head up.”

Mike Komisarek in his natural habitat

5| What are we to make of the fact that we are two weeks into training camp and the established NHL defensemen are still skating on four separate pairings? The two constants have been the Andrej Sekera-Justin Faulk and Ron Hainsey-Ryan Murphy pairings. My guess is that Mike Komisarek ends up on the outside looking in on opening night. Truth be told, Brett Bellemore has looked significantly better than the Hurricanes’ ridiculously overhyped (warning: Luke DeCock column) free agent signee. Mostly because Bellemore does not skate like he has a 400lb ankle weight and other unimportant stuff.

6| Canes Country notes that the team has allowed more goals-per-game than any other team in preseason at a whopping 4.25 GAA. However, previous years would seem to indicate that there is little correlation between preseason and regular season performance. The ‘Canes were excellent defensively in each of the last two preseasons, allowing just 2.2 and 2.3 goals against and then promptly followed it up by being among the worst defensive teams in the league. Don’t get me wrong: I think the team’s defense is a mess and that being even middle-of-the-pack in terms of GAA a lot to hope for, but this preseason’s numbers have been inflated by generally horrific goaltending outside of Anton Khudobin’s stellar performance against Montreal.

7| It’s that time of the year: the annual waiver panic attack freakout. Yes, will one of the players who can’t even make one of the most pathetic bottom sixes in hockey five-plus years after being drafted get claimed by another team? Should we even care (hint: no)? The great concern this year is over perennial object-of-fawn Zac Dalpe. The line of thought is that since Zach Boychuk was claimed last year, Dalpe certainly will be this year, but I’m not so sure. Last season was unusual in that the lockout allowed teams roughly half an AHL season to evaluate many of the prospects on the fringes of their roster (and the ‘Canes waited another eleven days after the start of the season to waive Boychuk). And it’s not as if teams were lining up to claim Boychuk: the Penguins were 18th in waiver priority at the time they claimed him. Nashville (who would claim Boychuk in March) did not put in a claim the first time around and only did so after having two months to further evaluate their team. That said, it only takes one interested team to claim Dalpe off of waivers.

8| Many are disappointed that the Hurricanes did not sign gritty veteran leader Brenden Morrow. However, who is really surprised that Morrow elected to sign with a contender in the Blues instead of the ‘Canes? How much more than the $1.5M salary he is earning from the Blues would the ‘Canes have had to pay him to entice him to sign? It’s also possible that Morrow didn’t want to come to Carolina, period. Elliotte Friedman recently revealed that John-Michael Liles refused to waive his no-trade clause to be traded to the ‘Canes in 2011 and I’m sure there are others that wouldn’t want to come to Carolina due to a desire to play in a bigger market or for a winning team (or any other number of reasons).

Video scouting: complete

9| Kirk Muller is frustratingly using the same powerplay set-up. You know the one. Where the team forms an umbrella, the pointmen at the top of the umbrella walks the line and dishes it to the forward on the right side, who passes it to the forward near the goal-line, who then sends a cross-ice pass to the pinching left defenseman while another forward serves as a decoy in the low slot. This worked a number of times in Muller’s first partial season with the team and has worked basically never since. The most annoying thing about this (besides its utter failure) is that it doesn’t play to the strengths of the team’s roster.  Alexander Semin – the team’s most skilled playmaker – spent most of his time on the powerplay last season either taking one-timers from the left side or serving as decoy in the slot.

10| There has been much debate over Jeff Skinner playing on the “third line” and whether that is misusing a player of his talents. However, it appears that the his line will also feature Tuomo Ruutu and one of Elias Lindholm or Riley Nash, with Jordan Staal being flanked by Nathan Gerbe and Patrick Dwyer. This is a non-issue. Not only does Skinner’s line feature more offensive talent, it will be used in favorable offensive situations whereas Jordan Staal’s line will be matched against the opponent’s best and see plenty of defensive zone starts. For all intents and purposes, the “third line” is essentially the “second”, even if it isn’t written as such on a lineup sheet. If Skinner gets talented linemates and receives enough powerplay time that he is playing seventeen or eighteen minutes a game, what is the problem? Short of breaking up the top line or playing him alongside Jordan Staal (and thus exposing Skinner to tougher forward matchups than he should be facing), this is the best role for Skinner.

Gillis and Russian Players

Amidst all the preseason excitement and the anticipation that comes with starting a new season, there is a mild feeling of disappointment so far at the showing of the Canucks recent draft pick, Bo Horvat.  So far out-shined by fellow 2013 draftee Hunter Shinkaruk as well as 2012 draftee Brendan Gaunce, it seems all but certain he will be sent down for another year of junior.

And that will probably be for the best.  It gives him some more time to develop his offensive ability and hopefully come back next year better and ready to challenge for a roster spot.  But some people’s eyes might wander to Valeri Nichushkin, the 6’4 Russian power forward, widely considered the best person available at that draft spot.

His combination of size, speed, youth, and NHL readiness would have made an ideal addition to a team looking for all those attributes, as well as the most important one – scoring.  But instead Canucks general manager Mike Gillis elected to go with the safe bet in Horvat, whose gritty two-way game will ensure he becomes a mainstay on a team’s bottom-6 even if his offensive production doesn’t improve.

In 2010, the Canucks traded their first round draft pick in a package for defenseman Keith Ballard after Beau Bennett and Jarred Tinordi, two players the Canucks coveted, were drafted before them.  But in an unintentionally leaked draft list, it appears that the Canucks had ranked the now elite prospect Evgeni Kuznetsov ahead of either, but still decided to pull the trigger.  Kuznetsov was selected right after where the Canucks would have picked and went on to become arguably the best prospect not in the NHL.  Ballard floundered in Vancouver and became an eventual buy-out candidate.

And after 2012, when the Canucks were in dire need of some additional scoring, Russian forward Alexander Semin was on the market for a long time, reportedly looking for a modest 2 years at $5m per, until finally settling on a 1 year tryout with Carolina, where he went on to be one of their best players last year.  The Canucks might have fared much differently with another legitimate scoring threat to help lighten the load on the “helicopter” line with Ryan Kesler.(no wings)

In fact, the Vancouver Canucks are just one of three teams without a single player from the former USSR anywhere on their roster and prospect system.  It seems increasingly clear that Gillis is shunning prospects from a rather large minority.  The likely reason is that Gillis is being overly cautious, not wanting to deal with the risk that a prospect heads to the Russian KHL.  However looking at all the Russian first round draft picks between 2001 and 2009, there is a 50% success rate, including superstars Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin, amongst others.  And while that may not seem like much, in reality the odds that the average non-Russian first rounder having a successful NHL career is actually even less.

That is not to say that the KHL is not a factor at all – it is, as former draftees Alexander Radulov or Nikita Filatov both currently in the KHL, might tell you.  But the risk is not as great as one might think.  And when drafting in the top-10, do you really want to choose a player based on his floor?  One that might be acquired in free agency or acquired cheaply in a trade?  Or do you look to draft players that are likely to be true game changers for your franchise?  Horvat might very well surprise us all and end up being a game changing player.  But Gillis’ aversion to Russians might once again come to haunt the Canucks as it did with the Ballard trade.  Because although extra caution might save you from losing a player to the KHL, can it make up for missing out on a potential franchise player?

Scott Glennie’s Injury

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook.

At times the universe can be a bitch, and Scott Glennie seems to have found himself on the wrong end of another cruel joke. Fans started writing off the young winger not long after Dallas drafted him 8th overall in 2009. He never helped his case by finding himself injured and unable to participate in every Dallas training camp he’s attended, and his maturity and dedication to the game came under fired from an unnamed teammate in junior. At times it did seem Glennie was headed for becoming another Top 10 bust.

Stars fans in recent weeks have learned that Glennie hunkered down and accepted Texas head coach Willie Desjardin’s demands to be a more consistent pro. Willie made Scott earn his minutes with the Texas Stars, and the strong hand helped Glennie become a quality checking forward for Dallas’ AHL affiliate late in the season and in the playoffs. The work ethic Desjardins forced on the one time offensive dynamo from the WHL was a big factor in Glennie’s decision to spend the summer in Dallas training with former Dallas Star Brett Severyn.

All the hard work and dedication seemed to be paying off. Dallas coach Lindy Ruff complemented his game, and mentioned him as a young player in the mix for an NHL spot. When he received an opportunity in Dallas’ s 2nd pre-season game to show fans just how far he’d come, disaster struck. After an impressive game where he showed his defensive ability, Glennie collided with a Florida player and the net before going down awkwardly following the Panther’s tying goal.

Yes … we don’t know the full extent of the injury yet, but Dallas GM Jim Nill was confident enough to tell Dallas Stars website contributor Mark Stepneski that Glennie could miss significant time.

Scott Glennie having MRI on his knee today. Expected to be out a while, according to Jim Nill.

— Mark Stepneski (@StarsInsideEdge) September 19, 2013

Tomorrow we’ll know the full extent of Glennie’s knee injury, and many Stars fans are hoping this isn’t as serious as it seems.

The Goulbourne Inanity

The dull thud heard immediately after Flyers GM Paul Holmgren announced Kelowna Rockets winger Tyrell Goulbourne as their 3rd-round selection (71st overall pick) at the 2013 draft was of Flyers fans’ jaws hitting the floor. The immediate response of Who? was quickly replaced by Why? as the collective mindset: why was a relatively early 3rd-round pick in a deep draft used on a diminutive forward known more for face-knuckling than puck-related abilities? One could include What? in the 5 W’s of this move, but it would have to be immediately followed by “the” and your favourite expletive.
It can be believed that Goulbourne’s mandible was among those making contact with a low horizontal surface, since he didn’t even see to being at Prudential Center for the draft, much less showing up for the early rounds. Furthermore, Goulbourne reportedly tweeted that his hope was to be selected in the 5th or 6th round. This is as telling as the various scouting reports projecting Goulbourne significantly beyond pick #71. International Scouting Services had him at exactly 100 picks later, and he showed up as the 151st best North American skater, according to NHL Central Scouting.
Add to this that Goulbourne is already 19 years old.
What the ****, indeed.
Some Orange & Black faithful have pointed out that Goulbourne brought more than just ready fists. By most accounts, he is a big-hitting energy player who plays the penalty kill, will skate through the proverbial wall for teammates, and showed a modest offensive improvement (14 G, 13 A in 64 games, up from 14 total points in 2011-12) last season.
In an interview with Anthony SanFilippo (http://flyers.nhl.com/club/news.htm?id=676082&navid=DL|PHI|home), Flyers Director of Player Development Chris Pryor explained the pick. “We didn’t have a fourth round pick and we knew [from talking to other teams] that he wouldn’t have been there when we picked in the fifth round. [Goulbourne] may only be a role guy in the NHL, but we think he has a real good chance to play in the NHL, which is the biggest thing. Look at the percentages of guys playing in the league. It gets less and less each round. So, we wanted to jump up a little bit to grab him because we feel he’s going to be in the NHL and anytime you can get a guy who’s going to play at that level, it doesn’t matter where you take him.”
Holmgren didn’t do Goulbourne any favours by referring to him as Z (ie, Zac Rinaldo) 2.0. One would hope that the bar would be set much higher for a 3rd rounder in a deep draft year than a big-hitting 4th line forward. Maybe if Holmgren had referred to him as David 2.0, considering his defeat of the Goliath-like adversary in the fight that seems to be at the top of Goulbourne’s CV. Then again, David had a much wider skill set, too, and would certainly have ranked at least an 8.0 B on israelitekingprospects.com. Maybe Holmgren is taking a page from the credo of Ragnar Danneskjöld, Ayn Rand’s capitalist pirate in Atlas Shrugged: replying to his readiness to meet the opposition’s belief in use of force. Certainly the signer of his paycheques, Ed Snider, seems a staunch adherent to Rand’s bully-capitalist position. But even with the continued need of muscles and knuckles in the NHL, there is an abundance of avenues to seek out a hired gun beyond the 3rd draft round, and the Flyers’ current roster and minor-league system are not hurting for hurting, so to speak.
In weighing the pros and cons of adding Goulbourne at the expense of several more hockey-skilled prospects, the bottom line is asset management. The Flyers franchise is in desperate need of adding top-line talent at every position to the cupboards. Any pick is an important asset, and those in deep drafts are even more so. If the CSI work on the Flyers draft order from episode 1 of Flight Plan is accurate, several more puck-savvy prospects were still available when Holmgren took his third long walk to the podium on draft day. The ardent fan hopes that each decision is made to improve the team’s strength. If only the Flyers front office took that figuratively rather than literally.

Notes from First Pre-Season Game, Montreal Canadiens versus Buffalo Sabres

Quick notes from pre-season game 1, Montreal Canadiens versus Buffalo Sabres

The Good

Jarred Tinordi: Played a great game last night, physical, smart, even showed a decent slapshot at some points in the game. He is developing nicely into the exact role he was drafted for, and that is to be a shutdown defenseman who can log big minutes. If anyone will work their way onto the blueline of the main roster, and steal a job from a vet, it will be him.

Michael McCarron: I came away very impressed with Michael. He showed quite a bit of skill, and his game was a lot more polished than what I expected. He managed to accumulate two assists in the game, as well as provide a nice decoy on the 2^nd Bournival goal by crashing the net with a head full of steam. His skating definitely needs some work, especially his stride which needs refinement as it looks a bit awkward. But if he improves on that, the sky really is the limit with this young man.

Michael Bournival: Scored two goals and played a key role on the most productive line of the night. Showed some offensive promise, but I fully expect him to score most of his goals through the use of pure effort than through the use offensive skills. Looked very promising and is projecting well into the role of a complementary forward on an offensive line, or a key contributor to a shutdown line. I look forward to seeing him develop further in Hamilton.

Greg Pateryn: Was very impressive, notching 3 assists and showing a lot of improvement in his game since last season. Most notably, his skating seems to have improved quite a bit. He also seemed very calm and poised with and without the puck, making simple plays and always finding himself in the right position. While he didn’t deliver huge hits like Tinordi, Pateryn did display a well-rounded game that while not flashy, is most certainly effective. Greg looks to be making a push onto the big club, but odds are high that he will be sent back for another year of development.

Lars Eller: Lars was perhaps the most impressive player for me and has me extremely excited for the coming season. Last night Lars looked dominant in all phases of the game, making plays in all 3 zones. He used a combination of skill, physicality, speed and brains to achieve this, beating his opponents in every which way. While this didn’t lead to much production, it did lead to many scoring chances and sustained offensive pressure, as well as help annihilate any offensive threat posed by the opposition. If Eller can display the same level of play on a consistent basis, especially in the season, he will be very fun to watch and should see an increase in responsibilities and ice time.

Brendan Gallagher: Brendan was up to his usual games, crashing the net and being an unstoppable ball of energy in the offensive zone. Gallagher was tremendous on the forecheck and created many offensive opportunities. While his defensive game still needs some work, Gallagher continues to impress and shows compete level and talent to hold onto his significant role with the big club.

Martin St-Pierre: Martin was more impressive than I expected. He displayed a lot of skill and hockey sense last night and will look really good as a leader for the Hamilton Bulldogs.

The OK

Alex Galchenyuk: He had quite a few good moments last night and showed significant improvements in the physicality department, but sadly just missed my “good” list. Needs to continue to improve and be more confident with the puck, he has all world talent he has to use it more often.

Martin Reway: He displayed tremendous skill last night, and I will probably get some heat for not putting on my “good” list. While he wowed the crowd and home viewers alike with his talent, he also made many questionable decisions with the puck most leading to very avoidable turnovers. He also failed to complement his line-mates seeming to be content with trying to do everything on his own. His passing was awful, as he tried repeatedly to force passes through multiple defenders after dangling himself into a corner. Reway has a whole bunch of skill, and he really put it on display last night. Unfortunately, he also put on display the exact reasons why he needs more seasoning in juniors and why he is a project moving forward. The good news is that skill cannot be taught and he has this in abundance, and most of his flaws, most notably decision making, can be improved through hard work and experience.

Sebastian Collberg: He made a few nice plays, but those were few and far in between. Going into the offensive zone I often found him following the play nicely and positioning himself properly to receive a pass, which never came. My personal hope is that they move him away from Reway in his next pre-season game, hopefully with a playmaking center, so that he can actually receive the puck and we can measure where he is at.

Zachary Fucale: Made a few tremendous saves. Got beat twice, the first one was a perfect shot, the second one I think he had a shot at saving and believe he wishes he had. Got beat by an unbelievable deke by Grigorenko, and nobody can blame him for that one. Overall he had a very solid performance. Zachary will likely be sent back down to Halifax where he will have to carry a team going through a transition as they are losing many key players from their championship run.

Players not yet mentioned, minus Diaz: For the most part performed as expected, nothing horrible, nothing special, and otherwise average. Not really worth mentioning.

The Bad

Raphael Diaz: Was very disappointed in Diaz, expected him to be a leader as he was the only true NHL defenseman present on the Habs lineup, but he was easily the worst there. He made a very costly mistake on one powerplay which led to a shorthanded goal against. Looked confused at times, especially on the powerplay, and failed to display the same level of play he demonstrated at the world championships. If anyone deserved to lose their spot to a Tinordi or Pateryn after this 1 game sample, Diaz is definitely the one.

Carolina Hurricanes Training Camp: The Powerplay

Since the beginning of time, the Hurricanes’ powerplay has been the scourge of fans and media alike. Despite the the team being generally terrible at even strength, on the penalty kill, in overtime, in shootouts and in ticket revenue (oh snap), ire seems to disproportionately drift towards the man advantage. It’s understandable to see why: the ‘Canes have finished above the league average in terms of goals-per-game in seven out of the last eight years, yet higher than 17th in powerplay percentage only once (’07-’08). More often than not, the powerplay has finished in the bottom ten.

Elite Powerplay Quarterback Tim Brent

A few key aspects of the makeup of the Hurricanes may help explain the disparity between even strength and powerplay scoring. While in many seasons the team has had its fair share of puckmoving defensemen, they have lacked a true PP quarterback, instead entrusting key powerplay minutes to players such as Joe Corvo and Joni Pitkänen, who possess a wealth of talent but little hockey sense and thus more appropriately belong on a second unit. In other seasons the team has had next to no skill on defense whatsoever, leaving them to resort to borderline NHLers such as Andrew Hutchinson, stonehands defensemen like Tim Gleason or Bret Hedican, and often four and sometimes five forwards on the PP, with the likes of Tim Brent and Jeff Hamilton running the point. At one point during the ’06-’07 season, having exhausted nearly every other available option, head coach Peter Laviolette completely gave up and iced a powerplay unit featuring Glen Wesley and Rod Brind’amour on the points (video evidence of this).

Moreover, the team has typically had at least a few significant forwards per season (Erik Cole, Tuomo Ruutu, Jordan Staal) who play a high-intensity physical game that is successful at even strength but doesn’t lend itself well to the powerplay where the game slows down. Others forwards (namely Jeff Skinner) have a difficult time utilizing their teammates effectively and aren’t able to use the manpower advantage to the team’s benefit. On the whole, the ‘Canes have been short on playmakers and “half-court” players who tend to excel on the powerplay.

The good news it that the #FancyStats would seem to indicate a turnaround on the horizon. Indeed, the Hurricanes were woefully unlucky on the powerplay last season, finishing 11th in the league in terms of shots-for per 60 minutes during 5-on-4 powerplays, yet just 28th in goals-for. During the previous five seasons the ‘Canes more or less got what they deserved, finishing (on average) 19th in the league in shots-for/60 and 16th in goals-for.

Among the unfortunate shooters during ’12-’13 was Eric Staal, who scored just 2 goals on 31 5-on-4 shots (6.5%) after scoring 50 goals on 260 shots (19.2%) the previous five years. Justin Faulk scored 0 goals on 25 shots after scoring 5 goals on 27 shots in his only other NHL season. And while Jordan Staal isn’t a great PP performer by any means, his 5.9 shooting % was less than half (13.5%) of his shooting percentage over the five seasons preceding. On the whole, the Hurricanes managed to shoot at 9.94%, good for 30th in the league. This is simply unsustainable over a long enough period of time, though the team’s tendency to lose a key player to injury prior to the start of nearly every season may indicate that they are cursed, likely due to Justin Williams viciously carving up Saku Koviu’s eye, which Habs fans are still complaining about because their 7th-seeded team with Cristobal Huet in net was destined for the Cup or something.

The bad news is that the Hurricanes will be without nearly everyone who spent significant time on the point: Corvo, Pitkänen, Brent, Jamie McBain, and Marc-Andre Bergeron. Only Faulk and Alex Semin return. Although the departures are by no means the cream of the crop in terms of PP ability (and every notable forward will be returning), many of the players brought in to replace them instill even less confidence. Let’s take a look at the new defensemen:

Ryan Murph–wait, is that CHAD???

RYAN MURPHY. Murphy brings roughly ten times more raw offensive talent than every other Hurricanes’ defenseman combined, but nevertheless there are some questions about his ability to run a powerplay. Last year, Murphy recorded 19 powerplay points in 54 games with the Kitchener Rangers. The OHL-to-NHL equivalency is .30, which means that he could theoretically be expected to score a whole 9 powerplay points over a full 82-game NHL season. However, his numbers were much better in previous years, posting 26 PP points in 49 games in ’11-’12 and 47 PP points in 63 games in ’10-’11. Murphy’s development may be better served playing big minutes for the Charlotte Checkers, but an immediate need for the parent club may result in him skating #7 D minutes with first unit powerplay time.

ANDREJ SEKERA. Sekera has registered 16 powerplay points in his career, with just 1 point over the past two seasons. The last time he got a significant opportunity with the man advantage was 10-11 and the results weren’t great, with the Sabres averaging 4.20 goals for per 60 minutes of 5-on-4 time. It’s worth noting that his most frequent teammates on the powerplay were Tyler Ennis, Jochen Hecht and Jordan Leopold, so it’s possible that being on a unit with better players could produce better results. Or not.

RON HAINSEY. Hainsey has been all but removed from the powerplay for the better part of four seasons, but before that had been a decent, Corvo-level option, scoring 23, 23, and 18 PP points during a three-year stretch. Still, it has been nearly five years – an eternity in hockey time – since Hainsey was utilized on the powerplay. Does he still have that ability, or has he not seen much powerplay time for a reason?

MIKE KOMISAREK. Mike has never scored a powerplay point ever.

Up front, Elias Lindholm will likely get a chance on the powerplay if he makes the team, which he will because the competition is kind of sad and the Hurricanes pretty much don’t care at all about developing players. Lindholm offers what no other scoring forward other than Semin does in the form of a right-handed shot. Capable of playing both the half-boards and in front of the net, Lindholm recorded 13 powerplay points (including 8 goals) in 48 games as a 17-year old playing against men in the Swedish Hockey League last year.

POWERPLAY UNIT PROJECTIONS:

PP1:
Jiří Tlustý – Eric Staal – Jeff Skinner
Alex Semin – Ryan Murphy

PP2:
Jordan Staal – Elias Lindholm – Tuomo Ruutu
Andrej Sekera/Ron Hainsey – Justin Faulk

CBA Article 9.1(d)(i) – Why would Dallas burn a ELC year for Oleksiak?

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook.

To be fair, this is also a follow up to Tristan King’s situation, but trying to figure that out made me discover something more peculiar. I took several days to read and re-read the CBA and dig into Oleksiak’s situation because I wanted to be confident before making the claim. I needed an example outside of the Dallas Stars to feel truly comfortable with the rule, and I found that with Tomas Tatar.

First, there’s no doubt King has a year remaining on his contact. There’s a small phrase in the NHL Collective Bargaining Agreement Article 9.1(d)(i) which I was unaware of but has a major impact on King and Oleksiak. I think most people that are Dallas fans are aware skaters with a birthday between September 16th and December 31st are considered “late births” in the draft, and in the case of players drafted out of the Canadian Hockey League, this distinction allows them to enter the AHL at 19 years old since they will turn 20 years old no later than December 31st. Their fellow draft picks from the same class born January 1st to September 14 must wait one extra season before leaving Canadian major junior. Where I was confused, is this does not mean the players entry level contract begins the year they turn pro in ALL cases.

In the event that an 18 year old or 19 year old Player signs an SPC with a
Club but does not play at least ten (10) NHL Games in the first season
under that SPC, the term of his SPC and his number of years in the Entry
Level System shall be extended for a period of one (1) year, except that
this automatic extension will not apply to a Player who is 19 according to
Section 9.2 by virtue of turning 20 between September 16 and December
31 in the year in which he first signs an SPC. Unless a Player and Club
expressly agree to the contrary, in the event a Player’s SPC is extended an
additional year in accordance with this subsection, all terms of the SPC,
with the exception of Signing Bonuses, but including Paragraph 1 Salary,
games played bonuses and Exhibit 5 bonuses, shall be extended; provided,
however, that the Player’s Paragraph 1 Salary shall be extended in all
circumstances.

That red text in Article 9.1(d)(i) is very important. First, you should know Article 9.1(d)(ii) is worded nearly the same but only refers to 18 year old players. Tristan King signed his contract after an impressive Traverse tournament. Therefore, in the eyes of the NHL he signed his SPC at the age of 18. This allowed his contract to slide one year. The following year, at the age of 19 years old in the eyes of the NHL, he was a year removed from signing his contract. Therefore although he was 19 years old, “according to Section 9.2 by virtue of turning 20 between September 16 and December 31,” he was NOT, “in the year in which he first signs an SPC.” This little fact, signing his contract in 2009 and turning 20 years old in 2010 is the reason King was under contract with the Dallas Stars for 5 years.

Tomas Tatar is in the exact same boat. He signed immediately after being drafted in the 2nd round by the Detroit Red Wings in 2009. His December 1st birthday meant his contract was able to slide a 2nd season in 2010-11. This is the reason Tatar is just now playing the final year of his ELC.

Now, and example of not being eligible for the 2nd slide with a late birth is Tomas Vincour. Mark Stepneski announced Vincour signed his entry-level contract with the Dallas Stars in March of 2010. According to Section 9.2, Vincour was 19 years old, but he was also, “in the year in which he first signs an SPC.” This would have been an even better example had Vincour not played 24 games in the NHL, but I can’t think of an example at this time of a player who signed at 19, with a late birth, and also did NOT have a contract slide.

This brings us to Oleksiak. Because of the lockout, the 10 game limit for the slide was lowered to just 5 games. Jamie Oleksiak, a late birth, signed his contract immediately after being drafted. Therefore he was 18 years old in the eyes of Section 9.2. The following season, he went pro and played in the AHL, but he was eligible for the entry level slide according to the rules I’ve cited above. Had Joe Nieuwendyk and the Dallas Stars not played him more than 5 games, he should have been officially playing under the first year of his entry level contract this season. Those 16 games played in a shorten season made him ineligible for the slide.

This is not the first time Dallas and Joe Nieuwendyk permitted a player to lose a year on his ELC. Reilly Smith, after the completion of his college career, played at least one game in the NHL before the end of the season which burned a year on his 3 year ELC.

In the grand scheme of things, this isn’t that big of deal, but it does seem like a curious decision to waste a contract year for Oleksiak on such a short season. More importantly, Oleksiak is already looking like a more complete player in terms of physical play and and offense. It’s only a rookie tournament and three days of camp, but no one would be surprised to see Jamie spend the next two seasons playing a prominent role in Dallas full time. You could argue that only playing two full seasons in the NHL before negotiating his 2nd contract could help Dallas sign him to a bridge contract like Subban or Kulikov, but if like Jamie Benn they fail to accomplish signing the bridge deal, Oleksiak signing a huge contract extension in two years would make burning the ELC year another misstep by the Niewendyk led Stars once again.

Is Damien Brunner a fit in Dallas?

Follow me on Twitter and Facebook.

Older NHL players with moderate success have found it difficult to secure work in the salary cap era. Teams place a greater emphasis on drafting and developing talent knowing that the entry level contracts for these players are the team’s best chance to ice a competitive squad under the restrictions of the cap.

Over the past week, we’ve seen serviceable NHLers like defenseman Hal Gill and winger Mason Raymond give in to tryout contracts with no guarantee of an NHL job just for the chance to win over a team during the pre-season. Others like forwards Damien Brunner and Brenden Morrow and defensemen Ron Hainsey and Tom Gilbert have chosen to stand their ground waiting for a NHL contract.

Hearing UFA ex-Wing Damien Brunner may be talking to Dallas (Jim Nill knows him) and New Jersey, possibly also Vancouver.

— Helene St. James (@HeleneStJames) September 12, 2013

As Dallas opens the on-ice portion of camp today, I can’t help but feel that Damien Brunner would be a worthwhile player for Dallas to take a chance on. Brunner’s highlights from his first season in the NHL are flashy, and his skill is obvious. Like former Dallas Stars Michael Ryder, Brunner is a sniper that knows how to score in the NHL. Ryder though was able to secure a one-way contract this summer with the New Jersey Devils. Why has Brunner failed to earn a contract up to this point?

Brunner is coming off a season as a 27 year old rookie where he only played 58 games, 14 came in the playoffs. You also cannot overlook Brunner’s fast start and ultimate fade down the stretch as a cause for concern for NHL general managers. In the first 19 games of his NHL career, Brunner scored 10 goals. After a 15 game slump with no goals, he only scored 2 more goals in the final 10 games of the season. On a positive note, he did lead Detroit with 5 goals in the playoffs where he again showed his offensive prowess.

You could argue his fast start was a result of the rest of the NHL getting up to speed. Some NHL vets played oversees, but most remained in North America training, expecting an agreement between the NHL and NHLPA to save the season. You could say he had an edge over most in the NHL in game readiness.

Conversely, those games in Switzerland meant by the end of the season he had played 90 pro games despite a previous career high of only 60. Those first 19 games in the NHL would have brought him to the end of a typical season in Switzerland, and the hockey he is accustomed too is just not as demanding or physical as the NHL game.

Furthermore, his new home in Michigan is over 6 times larger than the entire country of Switzerland. Damien was totally unprepared for the travel schedule of the NHL, and this condensed 48 game season would be more difficult than previous years.

Is Damien Brunner worth the risk? For the right contract, I think he is, and I feel the right contract is a single year deal worth no more than $2 to $2.5 million, well below the multiple year deal at $3 to $3.5 million he is reportedly seeking.

I do fear his small stature and undeveloped two-way game just might be too much for him to overcome, but goal scorers are not always easy to find. It’s not uncommon for a sniper to have long slumps similar to the one that struck Brunner mid-season so I don’t think you should be overly concerned about a 15 game slump. I do feel that Brunner will likely improve on his solid first season in the NHL.

Carolina Hurricanes Training Camp: The Bottom Six Disaster

Chad? Is that you?

A few weeks back I finished my inaugural HFLoungers post, which consisted of myself mocking my delusional fellow Hurricanes fans for their completely unwarranted optimism towards the team. Or I should say I almost finished it. Faced with the daunting task of adding hyperlinks and checking grammar, I put it aside for a couple of days. During that time, it was announced that defenseman Joni Pitkänen has shockingly not recovered from his offseason surgery in the incredibly optimistic timespan that the Hurricanes initially projected him to recover him in. Despite the fact that (1) a similar (although less severe) injury ended Washington Capitals forward Pat Peake’s career and he still “hurt(s) every day” seventeen years later and (2) Hurricanes GM Jim Rutherford compared the injury to one “suffered from a car crash instead of during a sporting event” and (3) Pitkänen never returns from injuries on time, ever, Rutherford initially expected him to be recover in…three months. A few weeks later, Pitkänen underwent surgery and Rutherford told Chip Alexander that he wouldn’t know for a few months if the surgery was totally successful or not. In other words, it can be inferred that the three month-time frame was based on the idea that Pitkanen would not need surgery, which turned out to be wrong (as it was with Cory Stillman, František Kaberle and Tuomo Ruutu, to name just a few).

“Am I optimistic that Pitkänen can get back to playing? Yeah, I kind of am, as far as playing, because he’s not going to go the surgery route.”

That was Pat Peake back in April, offering that he was “kind of” optimistic that Pitkänen would return, ever. And that was before he knew that surgery was needed. Five months later, we find out that Pitkänen can’t even put weight on his heel and will not be ready to start the season (UPDATE: Pitkänen will miss the entire 2013-2014 season). Like a person violently stabbing a balloon with a pin, the Delusional Fan Optimism Balloon was instantly deflated (and I am terrible at analogies). Fans totally lost it, realizing that the stunning trainwreck that is Jay Harrison In The Top 4 could make another nightmare-inducing appearance. Or worse yet, Mike Komisarek (sigh). Many fans, noting that Joni’s puckmoving skills would be missed, suggested that skilled defender Ryan Murphy (last seen at the WJCs getting torched by Valeri Nichushkin) should take his spot in the lineup, while others wanted a “safer” (read: useless) option in the form of Brett Bellemore, since you can never have enough slow, talentless #6/7 defensive defensemen in the lineup at the same time. Both options are rooted in the painful trauma of low expectations that Rutherford has inflicted upon the Carolina fanbase since the beginning of time, constantly failing to upgrade the glaringly-terrible defense and instead opting to sign Joe Corvo every year. Outsiders suggested perfectly reasonable ideas like “You guys should sign Ron Hainsey,” but they don’t know our pain. They don’t know our pain.

With that, my awesome post was no longer relevant, so I did the sensible thing: completely gave up. I have come back a few weeks later to attempt to write something more topical and am sadly ending up resorting to a series of cliche “Training Camp Battles” pieces. If you like reading about mediocre hockey players competing for spots that they will probably lose five games into the season and force the team into replacing them via the waiver wire, this is for you! My first installment will focus on the total disaster that is the Hurricanes’ bototm six.

THE BOTTOM SIX

Other than Patrick Dwyer, the ‘Canes have zero proven NHL hockey players (Kevin Westgarth does not count) in their bottom six, which totally makes sense given that the team’s core is mostly in their late 20s and only have a few prime years left. I mean, what better time to roll the dice on fringe prospects and AHL fodder turning out to be NHLers?

Head coach Kirk Muller may opt to pair Jordan Staal and Tuomo Ruutu together, with Jeff Skinner and Elias Lindholm skating on a separate line. Thus the “bottom six” refers to the fourth line and the two players that will fill in the remaining spots on the 2nd/3rd line. I know this is a difficult concept, but try to understand it.

The players competing for spots can be broken down into a few distinct categories:

Quality AHL scorers who can’t score at the NHL level and don’t offer many other NHL attributes: Zac Dalpe, Zach Boychuk, Aaron Palushaj. The first thing you’ll notice about many of these names are that these are largely the same players that “compete” every year in camp and fail to do anything, but “win” a spot simply because someone has to win. Zac Dalpe has “won” a spot in the lineup for three straight years, only to be sent down early in the season after his elite ability to skate down the wing and take a wrister/circle the net got old. Boychuk’s size and lack of hockey sense will likely prevent him from ever cracking the NHL on a full-time basis, though angry fans taking out their own personal failures on hockey players like to pretend it’s because he’s out of shape. Palushaj is the new guy in town and offers more in the “energy” category (and apparently falls down a lot), but likewise probably shouldn’t be in the NHL. This is the Carolina Hurricanes, however, so he has a pretty good shot.

Random Physical Players: Brett Sutter, Nicolas Blanchard. If you’ve been on HFBoards for more than a few minutes at any point since 2005, you’ve probably seen Nicolas Blanchard penciled in on the 4th line at least a few thousand times. This might be the year that The Dream is finally realized. Blanchard offers physicality and fighting ability, essentially making himself a better version of Kevin Westgarth. However, Westgarth is signed to a one-way deal and it remains to be seen whether the Hurricanes want to spend more money to have an additional player whose main assets are facepunching/grit on the roster. Sutter is a confusing case; every time he’s been in the NHL he’s done absolutely mindless things like throw an open ice hit while covering for a defenseman in transition or take horrible penalties, yet has endeared himself to Hurricanes fans due to meaningless stuff like having the last name “Sutter” or captaining an AHL team (I wonder how many AHL captains amounted to anything in the NHL; the list can’t be that long). To me, he appears to be a meathead incapable of doing much else other than running around throwing hits at defenseman two seconds after they’ve released the puck. If we are setting the bar so low to have a spot in the lineup, I would think that having a bigger, more intimidating player who is also a more capable fighter (Blanchard) makes more sense.

Safe/Useless Players: Drayson Bowman, Riley Nash. Nash and Bowman won’t cost you on the ice like some of the previously mentioned names, but won’t contribute much of anything either, despite delusional predictions by 12-year-olds that Nash will win the Selke. If the Hurricanes are looking to ice a fourth line that score and/or hit rather than skate around aimlessly and chip the puck out, it’s hard to see these two cracking the lineup. However, with many of the candidates for the bottom six being total liabilities, it wouldn’t surprise me if head coach Muller decided to simply ice a fourth line that wasn’t going to lose him games.

Guy Who Has A One-Way, $1M Contract For No Reason Whatsoever. Jeremy Welsh. Brillliant negotiating.

NHL Veterans: Radek Dvořák, Nathan Gerbe. What, players with an actual history of being semi-decent NHL players? While both Gerbe and Dvořák have seen their careers fall off somewhat over the past few seasons, the fact that they were useful a mere or three years ago would seemingly give them a leg up on the generally disgusting trash-heap of waiver fodder above. What sets Dvořák apart from the rest is his history as a penalty killer at the NHL level. Last season the team’s top six penalty killers (in terms of average shorthanded time) were Jordan Staal, Patrick Dwyer, Jussi Jokinen, Eric Staal, Jiri Tlusty and Alex Semin. Having someone like Dvořák in the lineup would help reduce the tough shorthanded minutes of the team’s top forwads and allow them to focus more on offense. It’s true that Blanchard and Sutter have spent significant time killing penalties at the AHL level, but can they do it at the NHL level? Gerbe, meanwhile, was able to produce 16 goals and 31 points in 64 games during the 2010-2011 season (while playing bottom six minutes alongside Paul Gaustad and Patrick Kaleta), but has been slowed due to a back injury since. He’s also roughly the same size as my mom.

FEARLESS AND LIKELY WRONG PREDICTION:
Jiří Tlustý  – Eric Staal – Alex Semin
Tuomo Ruutu – Jordan Staal – Patrick Dwyer
Jeff Skinner – Elias Lindholm – Radek Dvořák
Drayson Bowman – Riley Nash – Westgarth/Blanchard